This is why I think Google’s doomed
This is why I think Google’s doomed
Spending nearly 25+ years in IT means I am already somewhat of an ancient. I’ve literally seen several generational changes in this while, and I’ve seen fortunes made and lost over and over.
I’ve seen big giants of the past who seemingly could mow anything down in their way, misstep, fall and never rise again.
And I see it all over again.
This is what Google just did to itself with Gemini. ‘Social-justice’, ‘equality’, even ‘wokery’ is one thing, but downright and blatant racism is a thing apart.
They brought to public this abomination that nobody can trust. Whose idea was that? Sundar Pichai must be a really worried man. He must know the magnitude of the mistake they’ve made. After all he’s the one who benefited the most from a similar mistake from his biggest competitor - Microsoft.
This is the tale from the late 90s and the early 2000s when Internet Explorer was the dominant web browser of the world. Through it Microsoft hoped to control the Internet, much like Google controls it now.
But Google was the first mover in search and it forced Microsoft to play the game on its turf. Instead of focusing on making a good quality, standards-compliant, fast browser, Microsoft went head-on to fight Google on Search with Bing and later lost the browser too.
All because they relied too much on their dominance. IE had 90% of the market share then. If you are in that position, there’s nobody who can take you on, right?
Wrong. Google swept the rug from under Microsoft and it took them decades to re-emerge from that humiliation.
And OpenAI is doing it to Google.
You’d expect that a giant like Google who has all the money to throw at AI and arguably the best minds of the world can take on OpenAI and make a better AI.
But it seems they can’t.
Google’s lost its focus on the basics. Instead of getting the product right, they are trying to get everything right.
They are trying to be compliant, accepted and politically correct. Gotta get every pronoun right! Look where it’s getting them.
It’s going to be very hard for Google to pick themselves up from there and walk back into leadership. Their AI lost the trust and as far as AIs go, if there’s no trust, there’s fear instead.
Unless OpenAI makes a bigger mistake, they’ve won this round solidly.
Here’s a thought experiment.
Every company is proud to be ‘gpt’ and have OpenAI’s models working in the backend. It’s okay if it’s powered by ChatGPT. Right?
Now tell me, right now which company would be caught promoting that their product is powered by ‘Gemini’?
If you can’t think of one then you know why Google is in big trouble.
And for those who are thinking that Google has such a great business in search that they don’t need AI, they are wrong.
Here’s the truth - Google’s business is not search. It’s information.
The service they provide is to lead a human being to the information they seek as fast and as efficiently as possible.
Now ask yourself, What service does AI provide?
That, and more.
AI is not just an information tool, it’s a creative assistant and it’s also a decision making assistant.
It’s a lot more than Search can be, and it’ll eat Search’s lunch.
So unless Google immediately puts everything behind AI right now, they are going to go the same way as IBM did and then Microsoft did.
From a living legend to a once upon a time.
That’s my perspective. What do you think? Do you think Gemini has a chance to work? What can Google do to retain its monopoly and how does that affect us?
Let me know.
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